Mid Week Thoughts

Grains have come under pressure at the moment today after what I thought was a pretty good morning. CBT wheat was up almost 20 cents but now trading 3 lower.
The one thing that worries me about the latest rally is that we are going into harvest. Markets tend to overreact when it comes to apparent production disasters. I think there is damage done, but we have to look at the big picture in that it was a monstrous crop to begin with. Short term I’m a little bearish here. Long term I’d buy on any dips and hold.

AG
CornCorn 2 cents lower now and really looks like it needs a correction lower before continued strength. If you take the June high and the September low the market is nearly at that 50% market which might be pretty good resistance. If you’re long I’d be a little defensive with my positions.
Soybeans
Again, nice morning rally but it’s starting to fade. 1018 sx9 offers some resistance. By my rules of engagement we aren’t in a rally yet even though we have rallied. I’d still look to sell on weakness. If we get weak and 880 is tested or holds on any decline, yes then I will label it a rally. Not yet. I’d look at the 945 area for a good target with a decline. That offers some support and around the 50% retrace.
Wheat
Wheat is not overbought yet but is near resistance. It’s still in a downtrend until support is tested and holds. Not sure if we are hammering out a bottom yet or not.
Cattle
Market is starting to see a dollar rally in both live and feeder cattle. It’s been oversold for awhile and needs at least a correction. Still in a downtrend which means rallies ought to be sold. There’s not too much resistance overhead. I’d target the 98 50% retrace in the Dec..

Forex
In general i’d really hate to be short gold or silver or any commodity in general. Hyper inflation here we come. I’m betting against the dollar.
Gold
I’m watching the 15 min charts and we’ve broken out of a 1-2-3 bottom pattern. So that is confirmed.
Euro
At the moment new yearly highs. Long long long.
Auzzie Dollar
Same thing as Euro although we are getting a little overbought. Watching for the swing to TP longs maybe, but buy the dips.
Cable (Pound)
The only thing that scares me about buying this currency is the head and shoulder top the pound created during the summer months. Maybe we rally here, but I’d lightly short the rallies. Still in a downtrend.
Canuck Dollar
Oversold due for a correction, but here again bet against the dollar and sell this pair on rallies.

Swing
The swing trade has added a few positions. The scheme is now long both feeder cattle and live cattle. 95 entry on the Jan feeders and 84.95 on the Dec live.