The 2007 crop year final numbers came out yesterday which painted a pretty tight supply situation for all the grains. I had to laugh at the commentators on the radio claiming the report was "bearish" beans. It wasn't bearish by any means just the fact that the report was above the trade guess on supply. Make no mistake about it, we are extremely tight and have no room for error this season.
Corn:
US SUPPLY (millions of bushels)
Beginning Stocks: 1304
Production: 13704
Total Supply: 14393
Total Use: 13110
Ending Stocks: 1283
Stocks to Use: 9.7%
The report increased usage and decreased Ending Stocks. That's an extremely bullish situation if you think about it. Either the USDA is yanking our chain or we really did increase usage at these price levels. Going into the report and having a bearish usage bias at these price levels, I was totally expecting usage to go lower. I've been trading the 2008 Dec/July bear spreads for awhile now. A stocks to use under 10% has me seriously thinking I should exit those positions. The 2009 bull spread Jul/Dec looks to stampede even at the spread's current high level at 58.
Beans:
US SUPPLY (millions of bushels)
Beginning Stocks: 574
Production: 2585
Total Supply: 3189
Total Use: 3009
Ending Stocks: 160
Stocks to Use: 5.3%
The report increased (very slightly) supply and ending stocks while decreasing (slightly) Usage. The report may have shown a slightly bearish tone to the bean fundamentals, but make no mistake about it. 5.3% stocks to use is crazy tight. If there is any weather scare this season, and you know there will be, I don't see how 15 dollar beans will hold it. The 2008 Jul/Nov bull spread has come down now under 100. Although realitively high, I would look to start entering that spread again. Increase 2008 crop year supply while 2007 crop year supply is so very tight and 200 might not hold that spread.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
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