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DJ USDA Report: Summary For Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The following table is provided as a service to Dow
Jones Newswires subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks reports.
The reports were released Thursday morning.
Estimates are in millions of acres for 2011 U.S. prospective plantings and
billions of bushels for grain stocks as of March 1.
Prospective Plantings
Thursday's 2010
USDA Average Range Seedings
Corn 92.2 91.662 90.400-92.600 88.192
Soybeans 76.6 76.969 75.000-78.500 77.404
All Wheat 58.0 57.302 56.600-58.400 53.603
Winter Wheat 41.2 41.150 40.500-42.900 37.335
Other Spring Wheat 14.4 13.710 13.000-14.310 13.698
Durum 2.4 2.552 2.400-2.800 2.570
Cotton 12.6 13.12 11.8-13.60 10.97
** In the January Winter Wheat Seedings Report, USDA estimated
2011 winter wheat plantings at 40.990 million acres.
Grain Stocks
2010 2010
Dec. 1 Mar. 1
Thursday's USDA USDA
USDA Average Range Stocks Stocks
Corn 6.52 6.701 6.552-6.800 10.040 7.694
Soybeans 1.25 1.295 1.266-1.366 2.277 1.270
Wheat 1.42 1.399 1.300-1.488 1.928 1.356
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Planting Report Comments
DJ High Prices Drive Corn Planting Up, Soy Acres Slip
By Bill Tomson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON(Dow Jones)--U.S. farmers chasing high prices will be planting
92.178 million acres of corn this year, a 5% increase from last year, while
land going into soybean production is expected to slip slightly, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture said Thursday in its annual Prospective Plantings
report.
"Planted [corn] acreage is expected to be up in most states compared to last
year due to higher prices and grower expectations of better net returns," the
USDA said in the report.
The new corn planting forecast is also slightly higher than the 92 million
acres USDA predicted in late February during its annual outlook conference and
surpassed most analysts expectations.
Future prices for corn recently traded above 21/2-year highs on strong global
demand and worries about low supplies.
And the USDA confirmed in a separate report Thursday that there is indeed a
tight market. The Grain Stocks report that showed corn stockpiles across the
U.S. total just 6.52 billion bushels, 15% less than about a year ago on March
1, 2010.
Soybean stockpiles are also lower than a year ago, but the drop wasn't as
steep. Soybeans stocks, whether stored on farms or off, total 1.25 billion
bushels. That's a 2% decrease from the 1.27 billion bushels of stockpiles about
a year ago.
Soybean supplies are still tight though and global demand, especially from
China remains high, according to analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
China has become the largest foreign market for U.S. agriculture goods and its
appetite for U.S. soybeans continues to grow.
The USDA predicted Thursday that soybean acreage this year, although expected
to drop about 1% last year, will still be the the third largest planted crop
ever in the U.S.
Farmers are forecast to plant 76.6 million acres with soybeans this year,
down from 77.404 million acres in 2010 and 77.451 million acres in 2009.
But analysts were still expecting the USDA report to confirm that some
farmers are switching soybean acreage over to corn or even cotton, which has
seen strong increases in futures prices in recent months thanks to expected
production declines in China and Pakistan.
Cotton acreage in the U.S. this year is now forecast at 12.566 million acres,
a 15% increase from 10.973 million acres last year, according to the
Prospective Plantings report.
"Cotton acreage increases are expected in every state," the USDA said
Thursday.
The USDA also released an increase in its forecast for the acreage farmers
will plant with wheat. The new prediction is for 58.021 million acres and
that's about an 8% increase above the 53.603 million acres planted this year.
By Bill Tomson, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-646-0088; bill.tomson@dowjones.com
By Bill Tomson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON(Dow Jones)--U.S. farmers chasing high prices will be planting
92.178 million acres of corn this year, a 5% increase from last year, while
land going into soybean production is expected to slip slightly, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture said Thursday in its annual Prospective Plantings
report.
"Planted [corn] acreage is expected to be up in most states compared to last
year due to higher prices and grower expectations of better net returns," the
USDA said in the report.
The new corn planting forecast is also slightly higher than the 92 million
acres USDA predicted in late February during its annual outlook conference and
surpassed most analysts expectations.
Future prices for corn recently traded above 21/2-year highs on strong global
demand and worries about low supplies.
And the USDA confirmed in a separate report Thursday that there is indeed a
tight market. The Grain Stocks report that showed corn stockpiles across the
U.S. total just 6.52 billion bushels, 15% less than about a year ago on March
1, 2010.
Soybean stockpiles are also lower than a year ago, but the drop wasn't as
steep. Soybeans stocks, whether stored on farms or off, total 1.25 billion
bushels. That's a 2% decrease from the 1.27 billion bushels of stockpiles about
a year ago.
Soybean supplies are still tight though and global demand, especially from
China remains high, according to analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
China has become the largest foreign market for U.S. agriculture goods and its
appetite for U.S. soybeans continues to grow.
The USDA predicted Thursday that soybean acreage this year, although expected
to drop about 1% last year, will still be the the third largest planted crop
ever in the U.S.
Farmers are forecast to plant 76.6 million acres with soybeans this year,
down from 77.404 million acres in 2010 and 77.451 million acres in 2009.
But analysts were still expecting the USDA report to confirm that some
farmers are switching soybean acreage over to corn or even cotton, which has
seen strong increases in futures prices in recent months thanks to expected
production declines in China and Pakistan.
Cotton acreage in the U.S. this year is now forecast at 12.566 million acres,
a 15% increase from 10.973 million acres last year, according to the
Prospective Plantings report.
"Cotton acreage increases are expected in every state," the USDA said
Thursday.
The USDA also released an increase in its forecast for the acreage farmers
will plant with wheat. The new prediction is for 58.021 million acres and
that's about an 8% increase above the 53.603 million acres planted this year.
By Bill Tomson, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-646-0088; bill.tomson@dowjones.com
Monday, December 13, 2010
Commodity Roundup
13 Dec 10
Commodities
Corn
Looks like we are starting to get another wave higher after bouncing off of the 61.8 fib retracement. My swing trade system has initiated long positions. I’d like to see a rally past the 620 high CH11. If that occurs my next upside objective would be 675. Weakness before taking out 620 could spell a new downtrend. I think we have room to run higher.
Soybeans
Similar situation in the beans however last week ended a little weak. The rally needs to take out the high of 1355 to confirm strength. If that happens, my next upside objective would be 1470 SH11. RSI and MACD all are trending higher. Weakness below 1355 could begin a downtrend for the time being.
Wheat
Wheat in both KC and CBT have had a good couple of weeks. We are now up against resistance and overbought. We risk a double top if the market gets weak here which would signal to me a new trend lower. If we rally past the resistance in the face of being overbought, that would indicate pretty good strength.
Cattle
Looks like both feeders and lives are trying to let off some steam from recent strength. From the last wave in the LCJ11 contract we are nearing the 50% correction We are still clearly in an overall uptrend so long as the 104.1 area doesn’t get taken out by weakness. Watch the 61.8% fib (106.382) for market direction. Strength above it buy. Weakness below it sell. RSI and MACD are both trending lower indicating more weakness to come.
Commodities
Corn
Looks like we are starting to get another wave higher after bouncing off of the 61.8 fib retracement. My swing trade system has initiated long positions. I’d like to see a rally past the 620 high CH11. If that occurs my next upside objective would be 675. Weakness before taking out 620 could spell a new downtrend. I think we have room to run higher.
Soybeans
Similar situation in the beans however last week ended a little weak. The rally needs to take out the high of 1355 to confirm strength. If that happens, my next upside objective would be 1470 SH11. RSI and MACD all are trending higher. Weakness below 1355 could begin a downtrend for the time being.
Wheat
Wheat in both KC and CBT have had a good couple of weeks. We are now up against resistance and overbought. We risk a double top if the market gets weak here which would signal to me a new trend lower. If we rally past the resistance in the face of being overbought, that would indicate pretty good strength.
Cattle
Looks like both feeders and lives are trying to let off some steam from recent strength. From the last wave in the LCJ11 contract we are nearing the 50% correction We are still clearly in an overall uptrend so long as the 104.1 area doesn’t get taken out by weakness. Watch the 61.8% fib (106.382) for market direction. Strength above it buy. Weakness below it sell. RSI and MACD are both trending lower indicating more weakness to come.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Bean Fundamentals
Here are a few charts based on the recent USDA report data. My general view of the bean market is extremely bullish. We haven't seen such tight numbers right after a harvest in many years.
The first chart is total useage. You can see even with current high prices of 1280 SN11 useage is still smoking the previous four years. In my view even with current high prices we really haven't started rationing supply. With useage so strong here prices will have to surge higher to fight for acres next spring. That says nothing to the fact that we may have potential production problems next year.
Stocks to Use, my favorite fundamental indicator. It's a formula that figures current stocks to current useage. It's a pretty good gauge to how tight supplies are compared to useage. Typically a stocks to use under 7% or 8% is extremely tight. The latest USDA report came in at an amazingly low 4.89%. My records go back as far as early 90s and I've never seen s/u this tight.
The first chart is total useage. You can see even with current high prices of 1280 SN11 useage is still smoking the previous four years. In my view even with current high prices we really haven't started rationing supply. With useage so strong here prices will have to surge higher to fight for acres next spring. That says nothing to the fact that we may have potential production problems next year.
Stocks to Use, my favorite fundamental indicator. It's a formula that figures current stocks to current useage. It's a pretty good gauge to how tight supplies are compared to useage. Typically a stocks to use under 7% or 8% is extremely tight. The latest USDA report came in at an amazingly low 4.89%. My records go back as far as early 90s and I've never seen s/u this tight.
Final chart is ending stocks and tells the same story. We haven't seen numbers this tight after a fairly large harvest in many years.
BULLISH BULLISH BULLISH
USDA DEC 2010
Beg. Stocks: 151
Production: 3375
Total Supply: 3536
Total Use: 3371
Ending Stocks: 165
Stocks to Use: 4.89%
Monday, November 29, 2010
FX Roundup
I am back.
29 Nov 10
FX
USD
The dollar is strong in every cross that I watch. It looks to me like we have a long ways to go before we hit any meaningful resistance to the dollar rally. USD/CAD would be the closest to resistance. The resistance lies around 1.02470. Going through that area would be very bullish for the dollar. We aren’t anywhere near being overbought on the dollar yet. Europe is crumbing. Stay long the dollar.
AUD
Confirming weakness all over the place. AUD/JPY cross looks like a double top and AUD/USD, AUD/CAD both have nice head and shoulder tops. RSI and MACD both confirm a bearish tone. The only AUD cross that is holding its own is the EUR/AUD. The EUR is obviously the weaker of two. I put on double the short lots with the AUD/CAD and AUD/USD. I just can’t ignore the head and shoulder tops.
GBP
Although not nearly as weak and the Euro still pretty weak against the two pairs I watch. GBP/USD has broken some support and continues to fall. I have 1 lot shorted here but would love to see a brief rally to get aggressive about selling more. The Yen pair looks a lot weaker moving forward as it tested resistance and failed to move above it at 123.2. Bottom line here is as long as Europe looks to be in trouble, and it will for along while yet, the Pound is going down.
EUR
There’s not a lot to say about the Euro other than to sell the crap out of it. There’s lots of broken support all over. The EU debt woes will bring the EUR down for quite a while. The Euro against any pair is in terrible shape.
JPY
The Yen is in decent shape except against the USD. The AUD/JPY is going lower off of a double top. The EUR/JPY broke pretty strong support at 111.9. GPB/JPY looks like it will now resume a downtrend after a month long correction higher. The only bearishness is with the USD/JPY and that pair really could use a correction before I would buy into the dollar against the USD. I have a light bullish position in the USD.JPY
29 Nov 10
FX
USD
The dollar is strong in every cross that I watch. It looks to me like we have a long ways to go before we hit any meaningful resistance to the dollar rally. USD/CAD would be the closest to resistance. The resistance lies around 1.02470. Going through that area would be very bullish for the dollar. We aren’t anywhere near being overbought on the dollar yet. Europe is crumbing. Stay long the dollar.
AUD
Confirming weakness all over the place. AUD/JPY cross looks like a double top and AUD/USD, AUD/CAD both have nice head and shoulder tops. RSI and MACD both confirm a bearish tone. The only AUD cross that is holding its own is the EUR/AUD. The EUR is obviously the weaker of two. I put on double the short lots with the AUD/CAD and AUD/USD. I just can’t ignore the head and shoulder tops.
GBP
Although not nearly as weak and the Euro still pretty weak against the two pairs I watch. GBP/USD has broken some support and continues to fall. I have 1 lot shorted here but would love to see a brief rally to get aggressive about selling more. The Yen pair looks a lot weaker moving forward as it tested resistance and failed to move above it at 123.2. Bottom line here is as long as Europe looks to be in trouble, and it will for along while yet, the Pound is going down.
EUR
There’s not a lot to say about the Euro other than to sell the crap out of it. There’s lots of broken support all over. The EU debt woes will bring the EUR down for quite a while. The Euro against any pair is in terrible shape.
JPY
The Yen is in decent shape except against the USD. The AUD/JPY is going lower off of a double top. The EUR/JPY broke pretty strong support at 111.9. GPB/JPY looks like it will now resume a downtrend after a month long correction higher. The only bearishness is with the USD/JPY and that pair really could use a correction before I would buy into the dollar against the USD. I have a light bullish position in the USD.JPY
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Swing Update
Current Swing Open Trades
Instrument Status Month Entry Date Entry Price Stop
Live Cattle Short Dec 29 sept 10 98.55 99.95
Corn Short Dec 10/3/2010 460.5 509.25
Lean Hogs Short Dec 29-Sep-10 75.75 75.17
Soybeans Long jan 30-Sep-10 1112.25 1080
CBT Wheat Short Dec 22-Sep-10 721.00 687
Oats Long Dec 30-Sep-10 340.00 324
Feeder Cattle Long Jan 30-Sep-10 113.000 110.2
KC Wheat Short Dec 24-Sep-10 740.000 731.5
Recent Swing Closed Trades
Instrument Status Month Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price P/L
Live Cattle Short Dec 22-Sep-10 99.35 28-Sep-10 99.85 $200.00
Lean Hogs Long Dec 3-Sep-10 74.50 28-Sep-10 75.7 $480.00
Corn Long Dec 27-Aug-10 432.00 29-Sep-10 490 $2,900.00
Oats Long Dec 26-Sep-10 352.00 29-Sep-10 333 -$950.00
Soybeans Long Nov 27-Aug-10 1015.50 29-Sep-10 1089 $3,700.00
Feeder Cattle Short Jan 1-Sep-10 114.600 30-Sep-10 111.9 $1,350.00
Live Cattle Short Dec 29 sept 10 98.55 10/1/2010 99.95 -$560.00
Instrument Status Month Entry Date Entry Price Stop
Live Cattle Short Dec 29 sept 10 98.55 99.95
Corn Short Dec 10/3/2010 460.5 509.25
Lean Hogs Short Dec 29-Sep-10 75.75 75.17
Soybeans Long jan 30-Sep-10 1112.25 1080
CBT Wheat Short Dec 22-Sep-10 721.00 687
Oats Long Dec 30-Sep-10 340.00 324
Feeder Cattle Long Jan 30-Sep-10 113.000 110.2
KC Wheat Short Dec 24-Sep-10 740.000 731.5
Recent Swing Closed Trades
Instrument Status Month Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price P/L
Live Cattle Short Dec 22-Sep-10 99.35 28-Sep-10 99.85 $200.00
Lean Hogs Long Dec 3-Sep-10 74.50 28-Sep-10 75.7 $480.00
Corn Long Dec 27-Aug-10 432.00 29-Sep-10 490 $2,900.00
Oats Long Dec 26-Sep-10 352.00 29-Sep-10 333 -$950.00
Soybeans Long Nov 27-Aug-10 1015.50 29-Sep-10 1089 $3,700.00
Feeder Cattle Short Jan 1-Sep-10 114.600 30-Sep-10 111.9 $1,350.00
Live Cattle Short Dec 29 sept 10 98.55 10/1/2010 99.95 -$560.00
Monday, January 25, 2010
Swing Update
The past few trading days has seen the swing closed profit/loss go from down about -1200 bucks to now up 2185.
Today we were stopped with gains out of the feeder cattle and hogs.
Currently, the swing is short Corn, CBT Wheat, Soy Meal, Soy Oil, and Soybeans for a open p/l of +8800 bucks. Very very nice start to the year.
The Forex market I am up 691 pips for the year. Another good start.
Today we were stopped with gains out of the feeder cattle and hogs.
Currently, the swing is short Corn, CBT Wheat, Soy Meal, Soy Oil, and Soybeans for a open p/l of +8800 bucks. Very very nice start to the year.
The Forex market I am up 691 pips for the year. Another good start.
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